Like most, the coronavirus pandemic may have caught you off guard and it seems that you are living a science fiction movie rather than something real. However, scientists (including the WHO) had been warning for some time that something like this could happen. In fact, they practically took it for granted and their only question was when it would happen. The question to be asked would be why a pandemic was so predictable and above all, if something like this can happen again.
Scientists have been warning for some time that this could happen
And the answer is that yes, it can happen again. As Rafael Cantón, spokesman for the Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC) points out, it is not the first or the second time that such an event has happened and therefore could happen again. For example, in 1918 the "Spanish" flu infected a third of the world's population and killed 50 million people. And although we would now have more means to deal with health emergencies like this one, there are also elements that contribute to their development. As explained in the report "Pandemic emergencies in a globalized world: threats to security", published by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE),The ways of life in today's society contribute to the growing number of infectious diseases and their rapid expansion.
MORE INFECTIOUS DISEASES
The figures are conclusive in this regard, the number of new diseases per decade has multiplied by four during the last 60 years and according to a WHO report, in a single five-year period, more than 1,100 epidemic events had been detected. And in recent years, for example, there has been an epidemic of Ebola in West Africa, of Zika in South America, and of plague in Madagascar, in addition to the current Covid-19 pandemic.
MORE CONNECTED
More and more people live in large cities and in the poorest areas of the planet, these large cities have grown in a disorderly way, with few resources and without hygienic conditions meeting a minimum, which generates a perfect breeding ground for the extension of diseases.
In addition, today we can go from one part of the world to another in just a few hours. And that ease and speed in the transport of both people and animals (and with them, viruses), favors that as Dr. Cantón affirms, the transmission of microorganisms is much faster than it was before and that the risk of pandemics is greater.
AN ABUSED ENVIRONMENT
And if this weren't enough, climate change also plays a role. As Rafael Cantón explains, there are infectious diseases that are transmitted through mosquitoes and other arthropods; climate change can push them to change their habitat and as a consequence, spread diseases from one place to another. Thus, climate change is favoring the spread of certain infectious diseases of tropical origin, especially those transmitted by mosquitoes; so diseases such as Zika and dengue could end up spreading to Europe, the United States and Canada. Besides, there are data that suggest that there are some microorganisms (such as candida auris) that could be due to the climate change that we are experiencing.
For its part, the dwindling biodiversity also plays an important role since, as several studies have shown, it is associated with a greater spread of infectious diseases. It has been observed that the species that usually disappear from ecosystems are those that are less susceptible to harboring viruses or infectious microorganisms. On the contrary, those that survive are those that transport and spread disease most effectively. The result is that the percentage of carrier species increases and that in turn increases the possibility of infections.
BETTER PREPARED NOW THAN BEFORE?
In principle, we are now better prepared to face pandemics than years ago when they devastated the population. However, The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), an independent watchdog to ensure preparedness for global health crises, noted in a report that we were not ready to deal with something like this. Something that the WHO also pointed out in a document from just six months ago in which, in addition to warning of the risk of a pandemic, pointed out that many of the learnings and recommendations that emerged from previous emergencies have not been applied or put into operation.
In addition to this, it must be added that the massive use of certain antibiotics and antivirus can cause bacteria and viruses to mutate and become resistant, making fighting them much more difficult.
WILL COVID-19 RETURN?
And if it is possible that we suffer another pandemic, could Covid-19 return? Rafael Cantón explains that we don't know if he will return next year. We have an earlier example, the SARS-CoV coronavirus, which has completely disappeared and has not been found again; so this could also disappear. Now, if Covid-19 reappears, the immune response of people who have been in contact with the virus will prevent it from spreading again in the way we have seen now.
